Crop Yield Impact Projections
These projections are computed from the ISIMIP Fast-Track archive based on six global gridded crop models driven by five global climate models from CMIP5 following RCP8.5. The map on the right hand-side shows the relative increase in yield if additional irrigation is applied on present-day harvested areas, assuming irrigation water is not limiting.
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Simulated crop yield (t/ha/yr) circa year 2000 (+0.61°C above preindustrial). Data are shown for combined present-day irrigated and rainfed harvested areas.
Projected change in yield (%) relative to 2000 (multi-model ensemble median). Yellow areas show small level of impacts (range [-5;5%]). For larger level of impacts, grid cells where the models do not agree in the sign of change are shown in grey.
Relative increase in yield (%) if irrigation is applied on present day rainfed harvested areas, assuming no water limitation (note this does not account for actual irrigated water availability).
| Crop | Harvested area (ha) circa 2000 | Change in national average yield (%) relative to year 2000 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1.0°C | +1.5°C | +2°C | +2.5°C | +3.0°C | ||
| maize | 477027 | -3 [-5 to -1] | -4 [-11 to -2] | -5 [-19 to -2] | -12 [-24 to -1] | -15 [-33 to -4] |
| rice | 26873 | 0 [-5 to 3] | 0 [-4 to 6] | 1 [-5 to 9] | 0 [-7 to 8] | -2 [-12 to 8] |
| soy | 5823 | 2 [-3 to 8] | 3 [-3 to 13] | 6 [-8 to 25] | 6 [-9 to 31] | 8 [-13 to 38] |
Projected changes in yields (%) relative to 2000 (multi-model ensemble median) for each crop grown in the country at different waming levels. Total national harvested areas areas (circa 2000) are given in ha. Numbers in brackets represent the first and third quartiles.
Only two crop models contributed to the results of the following table.
These results are less robust than what is presented above!
| Crop | Harvested area (ha) circa 2000 | Change in national average yield (%) relative to year 2000 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1.0°C | +1.5°C | +2°C | +2.5°C | +3.0°C | ||
| millet | 42177 | -6 [-10 to -1] | -9 [-14 to -4] | -14 [-19 to -10] | -24 [-25 to -23] | -34 [-35 to -34] |
| groundnut | 96929 | -5 [-5 to -4] | -15 [-15 to -14] | -21 [-21 to -21] | -27 [-28 to -27] | -38 [-40 to -36] |
| beans | 87860 | -3 [-4 to -2] | -6 [-6 to -6] | -5 [-6 to -5] | -8 [-9 to -8] | -15 [-18 to -12] |
| cassava | 155814 | -9 [-11 to -7] | -20 [-22 to -18] | -23 [-26 to -21] | -31 [-34 to -28] | -39 [-44 to -34] |
| sorghum | 157983 | -6 [-9 to -4] | -14 [-15 to -13] | -19 [-20 to -18] | -27 [-27 to -26] | -37 [-39 to -34] |
| cotton | 319774 | -8 [-10 to -6] | -19 [-20 to -19] | -27 [-28 to -26] | -34 [-36 to -33] | -46 [-49 to -42] |
Projected changes in yields (%) relative to 2000 (multi-model ensemble median) for each crop grown in the country at different warming levels. Total national harvested areas areas (circa 2000) are given in ha. Numbers in brackets represent the first and third quartiles.